Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.425072 3.716715 4.050563 4.468676 4.990420 5.638770 6.540453
2025-02-09 3.043219 3.409281 3.860724 4.482349 5.363407 6.666818 9.030717
2025-02-16 2.819147 3.224427 3.749999 4.525628 5.745105 7.875687 13.274729
2025-02-23 2.594581 2.999413 3.538482 4.365189 5.748227 8.454196 17.771494
2025-03-02 2.472587 2.891069 3.464523 4.382849 6.037849 9.811654 34.521263
2025-03-09 2.365601 2.790056 3.384754 4.370786 6.264628 11.283993 323.979309
2025-03-16 2.253955 2.672264 3.266311 4.272862 6.288401 12.257651 NaN
2025-03-23 2.205388 2.638075 3.267048 4.374693 6.773269 15.854041 NaN
2025-03-30 2.107349 2.526253 3.138680 4.227656 6.634659 16.455937 NaN
2025-04-06 2.015662 2.418833 3.009870 4.065710 6.422957 16.419576 NaN
2025-04-13 1.945637 2.339508 2.920008 3.966575 6.350328 17.318987 NaN
2025-04-20 1.923303 2.328236 2.935867 4.066283 6.831559 25.042069 NaN
2025-04-27 1.915078 2.339047 2.990826 4.257595 7.709710 73.091767 NaN
2025-05-04 1.875895 2.301286 2.963192 4.278919 8.086152 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.843027 2.271253 2.945993 4.319714 8.573024 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.782879 2.196749 2.848556 4.174355 8.268222 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.752264 2.166517 2.825248 4.190459 8.648502 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.719656 2.131730 2.791784 4.179498 8.919125 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.677573 2.080627 2.727163 4.090345 8.789083 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.664470 2.074189 2.740272 4.183053 9.628176 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.620426 2.017513 2.661440 4.049118 9.193910 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.576038 1.959349 2.578343 3.901062 8.665882 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.541476 1.915958 2.520318 3.810148 8.436996 NaN NaN